Writing
Industry observations written from an IT operator's vantage inside a Chinese OEM's German operation. Personal opinion only — drawn from public sources, and not affiliated with any employer.
MIP 不是温柔版关税。它把钱还给没打价格战的人，逼一直打价格战的人涨价 —— 同时把价格战这件事，从所有人手里收走。
2026 年初，欧盟"取消"了对中国电动车的关税。但其实关税没有消失，只是被换成了一个"价格地板"（MIP）。这两个东西完全不是一回事 —— 而它对不同的中国车企，会导向完全不同的命运：把钱还给那些没打价格战的人，同时逼那些一直靠价格战抢份额的人涨价。
Europe's new price floor for Chinese EVs isn't a softer tariff. It hands the money back to some carmakers, forces a price rise on the rest — and ends the price war for all of them.
Europe is replacing its China-EV tariffs with a price floor — a minimum import price set by law to have "equivalent effect to the duty." Read that carefully and a sorting falls out: the floor hands the tariff money back to the carmakers who weren't fighting on price, and forces a price rise on the ones who were. Either way, the price war is over — and the price war was the whole game for the brands that had nothing else.
为什么欧洲市场下一阶段的胜负，不再是销量，而是运营能力
经销商数量是投入指标，不是产出指标。到 2027 年，2024-25 年卖到欧洲的第一批中国电车将满三岁——质保缓冲变薄，残值开始按真实使用数据重新定价，不再靠预测撑着。哪些品牌进 2029 年的第一梯队，哪些长期留在靠价格战和补贴租赁的第二梯队，决定胜负的不是开了多少店，而是店底下那套运营栈有没有建起来——或者租到手。
Three operational moats your China playbook didn't teach you to build — and one timing problem you cannot fix in 2027.
Dealer count is the input metric, not the output. By 2027 the first wave of Chinese-brand EVs sold into Europe will be three years old, and residual value will be re-priced on real ownership data. Which Chinese brands enter the 2029 first tier depends less on how many points of sale they open than on whether they build — or rent — the operational stack underneath.